Week 51

Hello there!

We see market kinda resting on 59,450 points. Next point looks like to be 62,120 with a possible retest on 57,900.

This is how I see Ibovespa:

Last week I've posted two charts from financial stocks but they didn't developed well.

One stock that is really strong in a bull trend is VALE5 ($VALE). Wouldn't be surprised if this stock hits 41,57 before a pullback. Worth watching.

As next Monday will be December 24th I won't be posting. Expect a post on Wednesday or Thursday.

Good trades for everybody!

Week 50

Hello there!

After two weeks without a post I'm back. I really was unable to keep things up to date during the trip.

Just recapitulating last post, we reached the 55,400 points on Ibovespa and things wasn't so clear to decide wich direction market would take.

As we can see now market is trying to form an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows on the daily candles.

Also, what I like to see when market is recovering is the financial sector. Our biggest banks are showing relative strenght.

ITAU UNIBANCO - ITUB4 - ITUB

MACD Line is higher than the last point

BRADESCO - BBDC4 - $BBD

Trying to make new highs

Bulls on charge.

Have a nice trade!

Week 47

Hello there!

Tuesday is holiday in some states here in Brazil. One of them is Sao Paulo wich is located our stock exchange so there will be no trading session tomorrow.

As I've been watching on previous posts, since Week 43, market reached the 55,400 area respecting drawn fibonacci.

If I was obligate to make a call today it would be bullish, but from now on I prefer to wait for a clear signal from market to take positions.

I'll be travelling next week so I don't think I could keep posts up to date. But I'll try.

Have a nice trade!

Week 46

Hello there!

The day after my last post was Election Day in USA. On the Election Day we had a strong move up with some kind of expectation in Romney (somehow people thought that he could change something). Well that wasn't the case. Obama won the presidential run and on Wednesday we had a sell off.

All of this is very interesting, even more if you take a look at the 50% retracement that was drawn on the fibo that I've plotted on the IBOVESPA chart.

Actually these tests on retracement lines kind of make me more confident about this fibo. Each day I believe more that this is the target before a long bull trend, in my opinion.

If market breaks down through 56,900 tomorrow it will be even easier.

Have a nice trade!

Week 45

Hello there!

Nothing special on todays post. Market really tested the 61.8% retracement (as I posted) in a strong move but I still keep my view to the downside on the next few days before an uptrend.

Just for a note: here in Brazil we are 3 hours earlier because of summer time. Our future starts trading at 09AM and stops at 17:55 local time.

Short post but I think you got the message.

Have a nice trade!

Week 44

Hello there!

Last week I posted the IBOVESPA chart projecting a movement that could reach around 55,400.00 points.

Like everyone knows the NYSE didn't opened Monday and Tuesday because of this terrible storm called Sandy. Without foreign traders we had a low trading volume wich barely changed our market level, either up or down, remaining between the 57,000 and 58,000 area.

Even expecting a leg toward the D point marked in the chart I believe that IBOVESPA can test the 61.8% retracement point before continue going down.

Although my bearish short term view I'm looking for a few stocks setting up well for long positions. I can post them next time.

Have a nice trade!

Week 43

Hello there!

Today was the first trading day of the USD-Denominated Ibovespa Futures $IBV_F on GLOBEX. Really usefull if you want to track brazilian markets!

Last week I posted a break out of a 7 days range wich made me think that our market was going up. It actually did that move up but in the end of the week it started reverting.

What I'm seeing today?

As the chart is showing, market is forming an ABCD movement and Fibonacci is targeting the 55,400 as the D point.

If you take a look to the MACD indicator you'll see that it's also doing lower highs and probably lower lows.

Enough said. We are going lower in my opinion.

And you? Are you bullish or bearish this week?

Have a nice trade!

Week 42

After trading sideways last week we broke out a tiny consolidation today wich could probably lead us higher this week.

With higher highs, higher lows, MACD Histogram going to the positive side I'm looking bullish this week.

Remembering that next Monday (October 22) IBOVESPA future contract will be available for trading, thanks to CME Group. Ticker symbol gonna be $IBV.

Here is more about it: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/ibovespa.html

Guess my posts will become more useful!

Have a nice trade!

Week 41

Hello there,

Before starting I wanna apologize for the time without posts. I'll try to keep things up to date.

So, despite Columbus Day in USA, wich could reduce our trading volume here in Brazil, todays move was pretty nice with a normal volume.

BOVESPA closed positive with a 1.27% change after testing the lower band of the trading range.

In my opinion we can go higher from here but stronger volume is needed as the same as the last up leg in beginning September. If we keep the uptrend 64,000 points will be reached again wich means that is time to go long.

The most related stocks with our index are $VALE $PBR $ITUB $GGB

Hope you like it!

September 25th

Hello there,

Today our major index IBOVESPA closed the day on the downside (-2.27%) with almost all of the stocks negative.

Banks embittered the biggest losses assimilating the recent credit tax cut of Bradesco (BBDC4) $BBD. Because of this tax cut Bradesco will reduce its revenue. Other banks will probably follow theses steps - as Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) $BDORY have already done that - and that's why stocks of this sector were the great losers of the day.

Anyway I'm not worried because we're working on an uptrend. Let's wait and see if market respects the lower band of the channel. This also can be good to spot new opportunities to buy.

Any questions or suggestions you can email me at: lucasmussi@gmail.com

Hope you like it!

Pulp and Paper Sector

Hello there.

Today's post is about Pulp and Paper sector. The three biggest companies here in Brazil are: Suzano Papel (SUZB5), Fibria (FIBR3) and Klabin (KLBN4).

SUZB5

This stock is making a great move since R$4.35 after dropped from R$8.70 in March highs. Next resistance is at R$6.20. Note that MACD was showing a move up before price.


FIBR3

A 50% move since its June lows. Stock is trending up and may continue this movement. MACD showing the same thing. Recovering pretty well.


KLBN4

Fundamentals speaking here. Only one of these three stocks that is being profitable on its balance sheets. Reaching all time highs.


Hope you like it!

QE3 Day

After Ben Bernanke today's speech IBOVESPA (Brazillian Index) rallied more than 2,000 points closing in a really strong day with a bull market feeling.

Almost all of the stocks have closed positive and probably will do the same tomorrow.

As my first intention I'm posting one stock per day:

JBSS3 (JBS)

6,40 seems to be the an important resistance. If this stock breaks out we can go to 7,00 and after that the stock is free to go.

Have a nice trade!

Mining Stocks

Hello there,

Today's post is about MMXM3 (Eike's mining company).

Here is a VALE5 (Vale do Rio Doce) chart that show us strong reaction move on government measures to help this sector. VALE5 is one of the major companies in Brazil and it's results affect directly in our GDP.

After a strong day VALE5 gapped up. If this stock keep running up could be a good idea to look after mining stocks because of its weight in this sector. The one who catched up my attention is MMXM3.

MACD is showing a move up but its price is still lagging. Maybe a long position with stop under its support.

Have a nice trade!

First Post

Hello everyone, this is the blog's first post.

First of all I would like to explain the main reason of this blog. All I want to do here is to post trading ideas and charst of brazilian stocks with my point of view.

Second thing. Please be advised that I share only what I think and you MUST NOT FOLLOW BLINDLY what is posted here.

With all that said let's get started.

In my first post I would like to show one of my favorite setups: MACD divergence

Note that before price start reverting, the MACD indicator is already making higher highs and higher lows. It is a good way to try to spot a trend reversal.

Hope you like it!