Monday, April 1, 2013

Week 14

Hello there,

Market is kind of recovering in my view and the divergence in MACD is making me confident.

Let's wait for the end of the week and see how market develops.

VALE5 - $VALE is consolidating with divergence in MACD too.

If this stock goes up Ibovespa could follow the move.

Only a few thoughts but I think that's it.

Have a nice trade!

Monday, March 25, 2013

Week 13

Hello there,

Well, if it wasn't now it is. Market is pretty ugly right now and all my expectations didn't ocurred.

The firs support I drew at 56,000 has been lost and now we're aiming 54,400. But if you draw a Fibo in this chart market could be aiming even lower like 53,000 points.

MACD Line is crossed down and news around Cyprus and Europe aren't positive even though I think that if market is affraid of Cyprus economy we all can go back to caves and forget about a globalized economy.

Even with all of these bearish analysis I feel that we're oversold here, so I'm watching Vale (VALE5 - $VALE) carefully.

MAGG3 that I posted last week droped  badly but if we had gone long, stop was just below the low of the day so wouldn't hurt much capital.

Let's wait and see what market brings to us until next week.

Have a nice trade!

Monday, March 18, 2013

Week 12

Hello there!

Ibovespa is kind of consolidanting values here around these 57,000 points which is what I was expecting of market before an uptrend. Some news about Vale (VALE5 - $VALE), saying that the companie belives in a rising price on the iron ore from now on, could benefit the market as well.

However if market loses the first support in 56,000 points it may confirm a major downtrend and things could get ugly.

Last week I called M. Dias Branco (MDIA3) when the stock was at 81.20. Today it closed 83.71.

Other stock that I'm watching is Magnesita (MAGG3 - $MFRSY)

Today the stock rose 2.55% closing at the high of the day with great volume. Also, MACD Line is very low. This one is looking pretty good for me and ready to take off.

Hope you like it!

Have a nice trade!

Monday, March 11, 2013

Week 11

Hello there!

What a nice development of Ibovespa since last post huh? That's a 3.88% rose with todays close at 58,800 points.

The biggest responsible for this movement was OGXP3 - $OGXPY that have noticed a deal with BTG Pactual (one of the gratest in Brazil). The news made this stock gap up and down on the following days.

This can be the bottom but I wouldn't pick trades in this stock at this moment.

My last call was MDIA3. Look at the chart below

I think that before making new all time highs this stock can pull back a little and then take off. Keep on watchlist.

Looks like bulls are taking the charge of our market, let's see.

That's all for today! Have a nice trade!

Monday, March 4, 2013

Week 10

Hello there!

Market developed a little last week though we still remain at a bottom. We must keep an eye at 56,000 level at the Ibovespa future which could lead us to 54,500 in case we lose it. Other way I think we could consolidate here before starting an uptrend. Here goes the chart:

What I'm watching:


Stock is holding upon the ascending trendline and forming an 1-2-3 low with MACD Line very low.

Have a nice trade!

Monday, February 25, 2013

Week 9

Hello there!

Not much to say about this bleeding market. While S&P500 was making higher highs Ibovespa was making lower lows. Most responsible stocks are PETR4 - $PBR, VALE5 - $VALE and OGXP3 - $OGXPY

Let's wait for a few days to see if it develops a double bottom here. Took the trade that I posted last week in PETR4 - $PBR but got stopped out.

Nothing at my radar right now though I think we are oversold here, just waiting for market to set up again.

PETR4 - $PBR and VALE5 - $VALE could be a good call because of its correlation with Ibovespa in case market rise from the ashes

Have a nice trade folks!

Monday, February 18, 2013

Week 8

Hello there!

Ibovespa didn't respected the fibonacci I drew in the chart and market is melting since first days of the year.

The future symbol has changed as I said in last post. It is now INDJ13 until April 17th.

What is giving me confidence now is that Petrobras - PETR4 - $PBR is making an 1-2-3 low and have a hook at 18.00. Its weight on Ibovespa makes me think that we could hold here or go higher from now on.

I really liked how this chart developed. I see divergence between price and MACD Line while it is crossing up.

I would take the trade if it breaks 18.00 and my stop is under 17.52

Have a nice trade!

Monday, February 4, 2013

Week 6

Hello there!

First of all I wanna tell you followers that the website with those graphic tools I used to post is no longer accepting free users so I changed for my brokerage firm software called XP PRO which is pretty good too.

Another Monday (4) on the negative side. Petrobras (PETR4 - $PBR) was the biggest responsible for the tragedy again. The biggest brazilian oil company fell -2.49% on the session with investors fearing a bad earnings report that was announced after markets close.

Here comes the Ibovespa future chart maturing in February's Wednesday closest to the 15th.

I had to draw again the Fibonacci, so our new level at Ibovespa future is the 58,840.00 level (still 38.2% retracement of the movement).

Would be very interesting and healthy if market holds this level. As you can see MACD Line is low but may need another week to be ready to go higher.

The last call I made was Braskem (BRKM5 - $BAK)

This stock performed very well against Ibovespa but today's movement got me unprepared even more with this volume. Even thinking that this stock could easily reach 16.30 level I would take the profit if it loses today's low.
I can easily enter this trade again in another opportunity.

Stocks that I'm watching for long positions:



Thanks and have a nice trade!

Monday, January 28, 2013

Week 5

Hello there!

After closing last Thursday (25) on the negative side, this Monday (28) Ibovespa fell 1,87% closing at 60,027 points. The biggest responsibles for this session were VALE5 - $VALE, OGXP3 - $OGXPY and banks like BBDC4 - $BBD that reported a profit 6,1% higher than the same quarter of last year and still fell 3,07%.

These two negative sessions had some volume which makes me think where Ibovespa is heading. Maybe 58,500 at the 38,2% retracement because of this volume that I mentioned but I really don't believe that our market have much room to fall while S&P is making higher highs.

Have a nice trade!

Monday, January 21, 2013

Week 4

Hello there!

Market is resting one more week. Ibovespa closed today at 61,899 points, a little lower than last week when it was 62,080.
Today's close was right above the supporting trendline but I don't think we need to be concerned about it. In my opinion market is trading sideways to go higher later.

Although market was choppy these days BRKM5 - $BAK is up 4,36% since my call last week. Nothing abnormal but a good trade for a market that is lagging.

That's all for today. Have a nice trade!

Monday, January 14, 2013

Week 3

Hello there!

5 trading days have passed and Ibovespa is still in the same level around 62,000 points. Although we would like to see market going up this kind of resting is positive, shows us that we're still in an uptrend even with the MACD Line crossing down.

This is what I see in Ibovespa

Don't have much to say but I would hold a little more long positions before taking profits.

Here is a chart of a stock that's looking interesting in my opinion.

Braskem - BRKM5 - $BAK

That's all for today! Have a nice trade!

Monday, January 7, 2013

Welcome 2013!

Hello there! Happy new year!

Ibovespa traded up very well last month, making december one of the best months in 2012 with gains of 6.04%.
We've reached September highs but with more consistency this time. In that ocasion Ibovespa made almost the same gains but in only 7 trading days. Our movement is better now in my opinion.

Watching this movement I also believe that market could be trading on the negative side in a few days, wich could be very healthy, if we lose the supporting trend line. We see MACD Line heading lower in this moment but didn't crossed yet.

I also want to show how BBDC4 ($BBD) and ITUB4 ($ITUB) developed well after my post about them.

Bradesco - $BBD - BBDC4

Ita├║ Unibanco - $ITUB - ITUB4

Hope you like it! Nice trades in 2013!